Pengaruh Kerja Sama Ekonomi Bilateral Indonesia-Australia melalui Investasi dan Perdagangan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61722/jemba.v3i6.3310Keywords:
Australian Investment, Exports, Imports, Economic Growth, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)Abstract
Bilateral economic cooperation between Indonesia and Australia through trade and investment provides opportunities to promote Indonesia's economic growth. However, increased trade and investment activities are not always accompanied by positive effects on the domestic economy. This study analyzes the relationship between Australian investment, exports, and imports and Indonesia's economic growth over the period 2010–2024 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that, in the long run, Australian investment and Indonesian exports have a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth, while imports have a positive but statistically insignificant effect. Meanwhile, in the short run, an interaction between exports and investment is identified.
References
Abdul Gani, R., Saripta Wijimulawiani, B., & Akbar Hidayat, A. (2026). Analisis Pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment, Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Ekspor Dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. EKOMA : Jurnal Ekonomi, 5(5).
Aditya Akbar, R., & Rusgiyono, A. (2016). ANALISIS INTEGRASI PASAR BAWANG MERAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM) (Studi Kasus: Harga Bawang Merah di Provinsi Jawa Tengah). JURNAL GAUSSIAN, 5(4), 811–820. http://ejournal-s1.undip.ac.id/index.php/gaussian
Adjaye, J. A. (2000). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Indonesian Economic Growth, 1970-1996. Economic Analysis & Policy. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0313-5926(00)50004-6
Anderson, K. (2024). Why did agriculture’s share of Australian gross domestic product not decline for a century? Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 68(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12540
Arsdien Pertiwi, S., & Iswani Achmad, A. (2021). Pemodelan Peramalan Menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) pada Faktor-faktor Ekonomi di Indonesia Periode Januari 2013-Desember 2019. https://doi.org/10.29313/.v7i1.25263
Bahri, A. N., Zaenuri, W., & Mutardho, A. (2024). The Influence Of Foreign Direct Investment And Inflation On Economic Growth In Indonesia For The 2013-2023 Period. 7(2), 88–99. https://jurnal.iain-bone.ac.id/index.php/altsarwah
BPS. (2024). Analisis KomoditasEkspor 2019-2023. 14.
Budiman, I., Abdurachman, B., Fatimah ’, M., & Aradea, A. (2024). THE ROLE OF THE COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT (CEPA) AND INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA’S ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY. Journal of Indonesian Social Sciences and Humanities, 15(1), 2025. https://ejournal.brin.go.id/jissh
Daniel eka bonokeling, Sholeh, M., & Mispandi, M. (2023). The Effect of Investment, National Government Expenditure, Exports, and Imports on Indonesia’s Economic Growth. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 30(1), 56–69. https://doi.org/10.14203/jep.30.1.2022.56-69
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. (2026). IA-CEPA - Official Documents.
Halim, R. F., Sudarno, S., & Tarno, T. (2024). PEMODELAN ANTAR VARIABEL EKONOMI SECARA SIMULTAN MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM). Jurnal Gaussian, 12(3), 414–424. https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.12.3.414-424
Hansa, R. A. (2024). Manfaat Dan Peluang Perjanjian Ia-Cepa (Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Ekspor Impor Indonesia-Australia. Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Pendidikan, 10(22), 1114–1128. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14587012
Helmiah, N., & Nasrudin. (2021). SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 15(2), 157–180. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i2.633
Herzer, D. (2010). How does foreign direct investment really affect developing countries’ growth? http://www.iai.wiwi.uni-goettingen.de
Hestika, D., & Armelly, A. (2025). Analysis of the Influence of Exports, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Unemployment on Economic Growth: A Study in 6 ASEAN Countries. Formosa Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 4(1), 331–342. https://doi.org/10.55927/fjmr.v4i1.13187
Holifah, H., & Laut, L. T. (2023). Pendekatan VECM Pada Variabel FDI dan Impor Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Negara. Buletin Ekonomika Pembangunan, 3(2). https://doi.org/10.21107/bep.v3i2.18392
IMF. (2015). Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth. http://www.imf.org/external/pp/ppindex.aspx
Khairunnissa, S. (2024). Analisis Perjanjian Indonesia- Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA) Terhadap Ekspor Produk Pertanian Indonesia. Refleksi Hukum: Jurnal Ilmu Hukum, 5(2), 179–198. https://doi.org/10.24246/jrh.2021.v5.i2.p179-198
Kholis, M. (2012). Dampak Foreign Direct Investment Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonmi Indonesia; Studi Makroekonomi dengan Penerapan Data Panel.
Linardy, G., Lauwren, J., Caroline, T., Friesca, J., Dayoh, H., & Yemima, R. I. (2021). Kerja Sama Bilateral Indonesia dan Australia dalam IA-CEPA. http://ejournal.fisip.unjani.ac.id/index.php/JGSS/article/view/572/237.
Mardiatmoko, G. (2020). The Importance of the Classical Assumption Test in Multiple Linear Regression Analysis (A Case Study of the Preparation of the Allometric Equation of Young Walnuts). Barekeng, 14(3), 333–342. https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol14iss3pp333-342
Meivitawanli, B. (2021). Research on the relationship between provincial foreign direct investment and economic growth: An empirical study in Indonesia. Journal of International Studies, 14(1), 241–257. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2021/14-1/17
Mustofa, H. Z., & Faizin, Moh. (2025). Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Economic Growth in Indonesia. Journal of Developing Economies, 10(1), 48–72. https://doi.org/10.20473/jde.v10i1.60620
Nasution, H. M., Mayes, A., & Richard, R. (2021). Kausalitas Ekspor terhadap Foreign Direst Investment di Indonesia Tahun 1995-2019. 8.
Ningsih, L., Tanjung, I. I., Hartini, & Arisna, P. (2025). Analisis HubunganPerdagangan, Investasi Asing, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan Ekonomi Dan Ilmu Ekonomi, 10.
Pramai Sella, N., Zuliansyah, A., Nurmalia, G., & UIN Raden Intan Lampung, radenintanacid. (2021). Al-Mashrof: Islamic Banking and Finance INTEGRASI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SYARIAH INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM) (Vol. 2, Number 1). http://ejournal.radenintan.ac.id/index.php/almashrof
Pratama, A., & Yuliana, G. (2024). THE RATIFICATION OF INDONESIA AUSTRALIA COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT: INVESTMENT CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES. ACLJ, 5.
Purwono, R., Sugiharti, L., Handoyo, R. D., & Esquivias, M. A. (2022). Trade Liberalization and Comparative Advantage: Evidence from Indonesia and Asian Trade Partners. Economies, 10(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10040080
Rahayu, Y. D., Amalia, S., & Hilmawan, R. (2026). Pengaruh Investasi Domestik dan Asing Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia: Pendekatan ARDL.
Renaldi, Aprilia, R., & Asnan Qodri, L. (2025). Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Dynamics, and Economic Growth in Indonesia: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model. http://jurnal.unmer.ac.id/index.php/jrei/
Rigo, D. (2021). Global value chains and technology transfer: new evidence from developing countries. Review of World Economics, 157(2), 271–294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-020-00398-8
Rissy, Y. Y. W. (2021). TANTANGAN DAN STRATEGI PELAKSANAAN INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT (IA-CEPA). Refleksi Hukum: Jurnal Ilmu Hukum, 5(2), 179–198. https://doi.org/10.24246/jrh.2021.v5.i2.p179-198
Safira, A., & Setyowati, E. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor dan Investasi Asing Langsung terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di ASEAN-4 Tahun 2018-2023. JAFM, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.38035/jafm.v6i2
Sahu, J. P. (2021). Does Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment Stimulate Economic Growth? Evidence from Developing Countries. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(4), 376–393. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2020.1833603
Sims, C. A., Rolnick, A. J., & Weber, W. E. (1986). Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis?
Siregar, W. S., & Gautama Siregar, B. (2025). Pengaruh Inflasi, Ekspor, dan Impor terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 2(2), 41–47. https://e.journal.titannusa.org/index.php/economist
Susanto, D. A. (2018). Isu Standar pada Perdagangan Indonesia-Australia dalam Kerja Sama IACEPA.
Utomo, N. B. (2023). ANALISIS DAMPAK KERJASAMA INTERNASIONAL INDONESIA AUSTRALIA COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT (IA CEPA) TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN. Jurnal Perspektif Bea Dan Cukai, 7(2), 2023.
Wie, T. K. (2005). The Major Channels of International Technology Transfer to Indonesia: An Assessment. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 10(2), 214–236. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860500071493
World Bank. (2023). Indonesia Product Exports to Australia 2023. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/IDN/Year/2023/TradeFlow/Export/Partner/AUS/Product/All-Groups?utm_source
Xu, L. (2021). Foreign Direct Investment, Import And Export Trade And Economic Growth-Based On Vector Autoregression Model. International Journal of Management and Economics Invention, 07(02). https://doi.org/10.47191/ijmei/v7i2.01
Zahara, D. E., & Riofita, H. (2026). Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. RIGGS: Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business, 5(2), 4226–4232. https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v5i2.9108
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 JURNAL ILMIAH EKONOMI, MANAJEMEN, BISNIS DAN AKUNTANSI
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
