Hilirisasi dan Transformasi Industri Indonesia: Peran Investasi Asing, Ekspor Manufaktur, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61722/jemba.v3i6.3319Keywords:
Downstreaming; Manufacturing value added; Foreign direct invesment; Manufacturing export; Economic growthAbstract
Downstreaming and the transformation of manufacturing industries are a strategic agenda for promoting quality economic growth in Indonesia, yet the manufacturing sector’s contribution to the economy has tended to decline despite rising foreign investment and manufacturing exports. This study analyzes the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Manufacturing Exports (ME), and Economic Growth (EG) on Manufacturing Value Added (MVA) in Indonesia. Using a quantitative approach with annual secondary data for 1996-2025, the study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results show that in the long run, FDI has a positive but insignificant effect, ME has a negative and insignificant effect, and EG has a negative and significant effect on MVA. In the short run, current-period FDI has a positive but insignificant effect and EG a negative one, while their effects at lags one to three reverse direction and become significant, indicating delayed effects; ME is insignificant at all lags. These findings suggest that increased foreign investment and manufacturing exports have not consistently generated domestic value added; downstreaming should therefore be strengthened through domestic industrial linkages, technology absorption, and manufacturing-based growth policies.
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