Pengaruh Cadangan Devisa, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan Inflasi terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah di Indonesia Tahun 1996-2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61722/jemba.v3i6.3305Keywords:
exchange rate; foreign exchange reserves; economic growth; inflation; ARDL.Abstract
The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar responds quickly to both domestic and external economic conditions. This study analyzes the effect of foreign exchange reserves, economic growth, and inflation on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia in the short and long run, using annual data for 1996–2025 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach in EViews 12. The bounds test (F-statistic 16.81603) indicates a long-run relationship, and the error correction term (-0.972810) is negative and significant. In the short run, economic growth has a significant negative effect on the exchange rate, while inflation becomes significant only at the third lag. In the long run, economic growth is significant at 1 percent (negative) and inflation is significant at 10 percent (positive), whereas foreign exchange reserves are not statistically significant. The model passes the normality, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity tests and is stable according to CUSUM and CUSUMSQ.
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