Pengaruh Produksi Listrik dari Batubara, Investasi Asing, dan Luas Hutan terhadap Emisi Karbon di Indonesia Periode 1990–2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61722/jemba.v3i6.3312Keywords:
carbon emissions; coal-fired electricity; foreign direct investment; forest area; multiple linear regressionAbstract
Per capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Indonesia have almost tripled since 1990, alongside the dominance of coal in electricity generation and a shrinking forest area. This study examines the effects of the share of electricity production from coal, foreign direct investment (FDI), and forest area on CO₂ emissions in Indonesia over 1990–2022. Using 33 annual World Bank observations and a log-linear multiple linear regression estimated by ordinary least squares, the study finds that all three variables are statistically significant at the 1% level. The coal share (elasticity 0.316) and FDI (semi-elasticity 0.011 per US$ billion) are positively associated with emissions, while forest area is negatively associated (elasticity −1.937). The model explains 96.1% of the variation in emissions and passes normality, heteroskedasticity, and multicollinearity tests. However, unit root tests indicate that several series are non-stationary, so the results should be read as long-run associations rather than causal effects. Decarbonising the power sector, screening the quality of FDI, and protecting forests should be pursued together.
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